Tag Archives: LeverCapitalPartners

When a CRE Loan Matures and the Refinance Doesn’t Clear the Existing Debt

by: Adam Horowitz

A Loan Can Mature Before the Capital Stack Is Ready

Many CRE owners are not dealing with a broken property. They are dealing with a broken capital structure.

A property may still be occupied, generating income, and performing close to plan. But when the loan matures, the refinance may not produce enough proceeds to pay off the existing debt. That creates a difficult situation for sponsors: the asset may still be working, but the capital stack no longer clears.

This is becoming a common issue in today’s commercial real estate market. Higher rates, tighter underwriting, lower valuations, and more conservative lender assumptions are reducing refinance proceeds across many deals.

The problem is simple: the loan is due, but the new loan is not large enough to take it out.

A Performing Property Does Not Guarantee a Full Refinance

In the past, many sponsors assumed that if a property was performing, the loan would refinance. That assumption is no longer safe.

Performance still matters, but lender proceeds are based on today’s underwriting, not yesterday’s loan terms. A property that supported a certain loan amount three or five years ago may not support the same amount today.

Lenders are looking closely at debt service coverage, interest rates, valuation, cash flow stability, asset class risk, and market conditions. Even if the property is not distressed, the refinance may still come in short.

This is especially true for loans originated during a lower-rate environment. Many of those loans were sized when debt was cheaper, values were higher, and exit assumptions were more forgiving. Today, the same property may support less debt, even if operations have not materially declined.

The Refinance Math Has Changed

The refinance shortfall is often a math problem.

If interest rates are higher, the property’s income may not support the same loan amount. If cap rates have moved, the appraised value may be lower. If lenders are more cautious, they may reduce leverage or require more cushion.

For example, a sponsor may have a $40 million loan maturing, but the best refinance option only produces $33 million. That creates a $7 million gap.

That gap does not disappear just because the property is performing. It has to be solved.

The sponsor may need to bring in fresh equity, negotiate an extension, add preferred equity, consider mezzanine debt, restructure the deal, or explore a sale. In some cases, the existing lender may be willing to work with the sponsor. In other cases, the lender may expect the borrower to solve the shortfall before maturity.

The Asset May Be Fine, But the Payoff Still Has to Clear

This is one of the most important distinctions in the current market.

A refinance problem is not always a property problem. Sometimes the asset is doing what it was supposed to do, but the original capital stack was built for a different market.

A deal may have assumed cheaper permanent debt. It may have expected stronger valuations. It may have relied on a sale or refinance that no longer pencils under current conditions.

That is why performing assets can still face pressure at maturity. The issue is not always occupancy, rent collection, or asset quality. The issue is whether the deal can support enough new debt to repay the old debt.

Sponsors Should Address the Gap Early

Sponsors should not wait until the final months before maturity to understand the problem.

The earlier the refinance gap is identified, the more options the sponsor has. That means reviewing the current payoff, estimating likely refinance proceeds, testing debt service coverage under current rates, reviewing extension rights, evaluating lender flexibility, and identifying whether gap capital may be needed.

Waiting too long can reduce negotiating leverage and limit available capital options.

How Lever Can Help

Lever Capital Partners helps sponsors evaluate refinance risk before maturity and identify solutions when new loan proceeds do not fully clear the existing debt.

That can include sourcing refinance options, identifying preferred equity or mezzanine capital, negotiating with lenders, or structuring fresh equity to bridge the gap.

For sponsors facing a maturity issue, the question is not just, “Can we refinance?”

The better question is: what capital structure gives the deal the highest probability of surviving the maturity and moving forward?

Lever can help sponsors pressure-test the refinance, understand the size of the gap, and connect with capital providers aligned with the asset, timeline, and risk profile.

The Bottom Line

A maturing CRE loan is no longer just a debt event. It is a capital structure test.

The property may still be performing, but if refinance proceeds do not clear the existing payoff, the sponsor needs a plan. That plan may involve new debt, gap equity, preferred equity, lender negotiation, or a broader restructuring.

The asset may still be working. But if the capital stack does not refinance, the deal needs a new structure.

Opportunity Zone Capital Is Becoming More Selective

by: Adam Horowitz

The Old Assumption Is Breaking

For several years, many Opportunity Zone projects benefited from a simple assumption: if the deal qualified, capital would pay attention. The tax benefits created a strong reason for investors to look at projects in designated communities, and that helped bring new interest to markets that may have otherwise been overlooked.

That assumption is weakening.

Opportunity Zone capital is still active, but it is becoming more selective. Investors are no longer underwriting the tax incentive alone. They are underwriting the actual real estate, the sponsor, the market, the basis, the capital stack, and the execution plan.

Being in an Opportunity Zone Is Not a Capital Strategy

In the earlier stages of the market, some projects leaned heavily on the tax story. The pitch was often built around location, eligibility, and the potential investor benefit.

Today, that is not enough.

Capital providers are asking harder questions. Is the basis defensible? Is the submarket actually investable? Does the sponsor have the experience to execute? Is there enough demand for the finished product? Can the project survive higher costs, slower leasing, or a delayed exit?

The tax incentive can improve the investment story, but it cannot fix weak real estate.

Why Investor Behavior Has Changed

This shift is happening because the broader capital market has changed. Debt is more expensive than it was during the low-rate cycle. Construction costs remain difficult to control. Exit assumptions are less forgiving. Investors are more focused on downside protection, liquidity, and whether a project can perform under more conservative assumptions.

That means Opportunity Zone investors are behaving more like disciplined real estate investors, not just tax-motivated capital. They still care about the tax treatment, but they also want to understand the full risk profile of the deal.

What Investors Are Underwriting Now

Sponsor quality matters more. Investors want to know whether the sponsor has relevant experience, local market knowledge, lender relationships, and the ability to manage execution risk.

Market fundamentals matter more. Population growth, employment drivers, tenant demand, absorption, rent support, and competing supply all carry more weight.

Basis matters more. A project may qualify for Opportunity Zone treatment, but if the basis is too high, the return profile may not work.

Capital structure matters more. Investors want to know whether the debt is realistic, whether the sponsor has enough equity, whether preferred equity is needed, and whether the capital stack can survive delays or cost increases.

Exit strategy matters more. A project needs a credible path to stabilization, refinancing, or sale. If the exit depends on aggressive cap rates or a perfect market recovery, investors will push back.

The OZ Label Does Not Remove Execution Risk

This is why some Opportunity Zone deals are harder to capitalize today. The OZ label does not remove execution risk.

Ground-up projects with unclear demand, thin sponsor equity, weak submarkets, or unrealistic refinance assumptions are facing more scrutiny. Investors are less interested in the zip code alone. They want to know whether the project can perform.

What This Means for Sponsors

For sponsors, this creates a more demanding fundraising environment. The opportunity is still there, but the story has to be sharper.

Sponsors need to explain why the project deserves capital now, why the market supports the business plan, how the risks are being managed, and why the Opportunity Zone benefit enhances the investment instead of carrying it.

At Lever Capital Partners, we see Opportunity Zone capital becoming more selective, with investors placing greater weight on sponsor quality, basis, structure, and execution risk.

How Lever Can Help

Lever helps sponsors position Opportunity Zone projects for today’s capital market. That means looking beyond tax eligibility and focusing on what investors are actually underwriting.

For sponsors raising capital for Opportunity Zone real estate, Lever can help identify aligned capital sources, structure the financing strategy, and present the opportunity in a way that speaks to current investor behavior.

The challenge is not just finding investors who understand the tax incentive. It is finding capital that believes in the project itself.

The Bottom Line

Opportunity Zones are not dead. The market is simply more disciplined.

Before, the tax benefit often came first and the real estate came second. Now, the real estate comes first, and the tax benefit supports the story.

The tax incentive still opens the door. But the deal still has to earn the capital.

2026 CRE Refinancing: Why Capital Availability Is No Longer Enough

by: Jack Moskow

Entering 2026, capital has returned to commercial real estate, but it is being deployed much more selectively than in prior cycles. Banks, life insurance companies, agencies, and private credit lenders are still active, yet the market is no longer rewarding broad risk-taking the way it did when rates were near historic lows. Today, lenders are focused on asset quality, sponsorship strength, income durability, and the borrower’s ability to support the capital stack under current underwriting standards. In this environment, the issue is not simply whether liquidity exists. The real question is whether a property’s basis and structure can support a refinance or transaction.

For many owners and developers, this has changed the financing conversation. A few years ago, borrowers could often focus mainly on pricing, proceeds, and execution speed. Now, the conversation is shifting from “What’s the rate?” to “How do we rebuild the capital stack?” Higher borrowing costs, with stabilized assets still seeing rates in roughly the 5.5%–6% range combined with lower valuations and more conservative lender sizing, have made structure just as important as liquidity. Even if capital is available, it may not be available at the leverage level needed to refinance an existing loan or support the original acquisition basis.

Liquidity is available, but it is selective.Stabilized multifamily, industrial, and grocery-anchored retail assets with strong cash flow continue to attract lender interest. Experienced sponsors with proven track records are also better positioned to access capital. However, assets with weaker fundamentals, uncertain leasing, or business plans that depend heavily on future rent growth are facing more scrutiny.

The bigger challenge is the refinancing gap created by loans originated during the low-rate environment. Between 2019 and 2022, many properties were financed at 70–75% loan-to-value, often with interest rates below 4%. As those loans mature, borrowers are now facing a very different lending environment.

Today, lenders are sizing closer to 50–60% loan-to-value placing more weight on debt yield, debt service coverage, and downside protection. As a result, new senior loan proceeds may fall well short of the existing debt balance.

That gap can create serious pressure for owners. A property may still be performing, but if the new senior loan cannot cover the maturing debt, the sponsor must find additional capital. In many cases, senior debt alone is no longer enough. This is where capital stack restructuring becomes essential. Mezzanine debt, preferred equity, joint venture equity, and other structured solutions can help bridge the gap between lender proceeds and the asset’s existing basis.

For owners who still believe in the long-term value of their assets, this type of structuring can be the difference between preserving ownership and being forced to sell at an unfavorable time. Layered capital can provide flexibility, help complete a refinance, and allow sponsors to hold through a difficult part of the cycle. However, these solutions need to be structured carefully. The wrong capital partner or an overly expensive structure can create new problems instead of solving the original one.

Lever Capital Partners helps sponsors navigate this environment by identifying the right financing solution for each asset and situation. In a market where basis increasingly determines liquidity, Lever works with borrowers to assess the gap, evaluate available capital sources, and structure the appropriate mix of senior debt, mezzanine financing, and preferred equity.

By leveraging relationships across banks, life insurance companies, agencies, and private credit lenders, Lever Capital Partners helps clients access capital that fits today’s underwriting standards. The goal is not just to find a loan, but to build a capital stack that can close, support the asset, and preserve long-term value. In 2026, surviving the refinancing cycle will depend less on whether capital exists and more on whether sponsors can structure around today’s reality. 

When a CRE Loan Matures and the Refinance Doesn’t Clear the Existing Debt

by: Adam Horowitz

Most borrowers coming into maturity today expected to refinance. What they’re realizing is that the refinance doesn’t clear the loan.

Across the deals we’re seeing, it’s not a question of whether debt is available. It’s that the new loan is coming in materially below the existing balance. That gap is what’s driving decisions right now.

According to industry data from groups like the Mortgage Bankers Association and Trepp, over $1.5 trillion of U.S. commercial real estate debt is maturing between 2025 and 2027. Much of that was originated in a very different environment. That’s the backdrop for what’s happening today. In this environment, working with us at Lever Capital Partners can help borrowers understand where their deal actually stands and what options are realistically on the table.

This Isn’t a Rate Problem, It’s a Proceeds Problem

Higher rates are part of the story, but they’re not the core issue.

What has changed more meaningfully is how loans are being sized. Lenders are underwriting to higher debt yields, lower leverage, and actual in-place cash flow. There is less reliance on projected growth, and more emphasis on where the deal stands today.

The result is straightforward. Even when a property is performing, it often doesn’t support the same loan proceeds it did a few years ago. We are consistently seeing situations where the new loan comes in 10 to 25 percent below the existing balance. That is where deals start to break.

This is not a liquidity issue. Capital is still there. It is a structure issue.

A Lot of These Deals Only Worked in One Environment

Many of the loans coming due today were structured between 2020 and 2022, when leverage was higher, rates were lower, and underwriting gave more credit to future rent growth.

Take those assumptions away, and the structure does not hold the same way.

That does not mean the asset failed. In many cases, the property is stable and performing. The issue is that the original capital stack was built around conditions that no longer exist.

Where the Pressure Shows Up

The pressure point is simple. The existing loan balance is higher than what the market will refinance today.

That gap forces decisions.

In some cases, it is driven purely by leverage. In others, it is a combination of rate movement, flat values, and underwriting discipline. For deals that were already thinly capitalized, there is very little room to absorb that shift.

What we are seeing more frequently is that sponsors are not dealing with an operational problem. They are dealing with a capital structure that no longer works.

What Sponsors Are Actually Doing

At this point, most borrowers are not choosing between ideal outcomes. They are choosing how to manage the gap.

Some are writing checks to complete a cash-in refinance and protect their basis. Others are bringing in preferred equity or mezzanine capital, not as an optimization, but as a way to get the deal closed. That comes with a higher cost of capital and a different risk profile.

There are also situations where the numbers simply do not justify putting more money into the deal. In those cases, the conversation shifts toward a recapitalization, a sale, or stepping away entirely.

There is no clean solution once the gap shows up. There are only trade-offs.

What Lenders Are Actually Doing

Lenders are still active, but the approach is more disciplined.

They are sizing to current performance, not future expectations. They are more focused on downside protection, and less willing to stretch to make a deal fit a prior capital structure. Extensions are happening, but they are no longer automatic and almost always come with conditions.

The assumption that every loan refinances has been removed from the market.

What This Looks Like in Practice

A deal financed in 2021 at around 70 percent leverage reaches maturity today. Under current underwriting, that same asset might support something closer to the mid-50s to low-60s range, depending on the asset and market.

That difference creates the gap.

At that point, the borrower is not deciding whether to refinance. They are deciding how to solve the shortfall, whether that means adding capital, restructuring the deal, or exiting.

What Matters Now

The sponsors navigating this best are the ones getting in front of it early.

That means running realistic refinance scenarios, understanding where proceeds will land, and identifying the gap before time becomes a constraint. The biggest mistake we see is treating maturity like a formality instead of what it has become, which is a capital event.

This is where we typically come in, helping sponsors quantify that gap, understand how lenders are actually sizing deals today, and structure solutions that reflect current market conditions rather than past assumptions.

Final Thought

Loan maturity used to be routine.

Today, it is where the capital stack gets exposed.

The deals that get through this cycle are not the ones with the best story. They are the ones where the structure works under today’s constraints.

$1.8 Trillion of CRE Debt Is Coming Due. Here’s How Deals Are Actually Getting Refinanced in 2026

by: Adam Horowitz

Over $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion in U.S. commercial real estate debt is set to mature between 2026 and 2027, according to industry estimates from the Mortgage Bankers Association and Trepp. Much of this debt was originated in a very different environment, characterized by lower interest rates, higher leverage, and more aggressive underwriting. Today, the landscape has shifted. Refinancing is no longer a routine process. It has become one of the most critical strategic decisions sponsors face. In this environment, working with experienced capital advisors like us at Lever Capital Partners can help sponsors navigate changing lender expectations and structure deals that are positioned to close.

This is not simply a rate issue. It is a structural one.

Why Refinancing Is More Difficult Today

Higher interest rates continue to pressure debt service coverage ratios, reducing loan proceeds even for otherwise stable assets. Many loans that were originated in the 3–4% rate environment are now refinancing into 6–8%+ rates, significantly impacting cash flow and loan sizing.

At the same time, lenders are more selective. Leverage levels have come down, credit boxes have tightened, and underwriting assumptions are more conservative.

In many cases, asset values have not kept pace with these changes. As a result, loans that were once comfortably sized at 70–75% loan-to-value are now being underwritten closer to 55–65%. The outcome is a growing disconnect between existing loan balances and what new lenders are willing to provide.

The Refinancing Gap Is Now the Central Challenge

This disconnect has created what many are calling the refinancing gap. Even high-quality assets with strong sponsorship are facing situations where senior debt alone cannot take out the existing loan.

Sponsors are left with a limited set of options. They can contribute additional equity, sell into a potentially unfavorable market, or restructure the capital stack to bridge the difference. Increasingly, the third option is becoming the most practical path forward.

How Deals Are Actually Getting Done

In 2026, refinancing is less about replacing a loan and more about rebuilding the capital stack.

Sponsors are combining senior debt with mezzanine financing or preferred equity to close proceeds gaps. Stretch senior loans and structured debt solutions are also gaining traction, particularly for assets with strong fundamentals but temporary constraints.

For transitional properties, bridge-to-permanent strategies are being used to buy time and improve loan sizing at stabilization.

These approaches reflect a broader shift in the market, where debt funds and alternative lenders now account for a significant share of new CRE lending activity, stepping in where traditional banks have pulled back.

What Lenders Are Prioritizing

Lenders today are focused on durability and downside protection. Strong, stable cash flow remains the primary driver of loan sizing.

Debt yields have moved meaningfully higher, with many lenders targeting 8–10%+ debt yields, reinforcing the shift toward lower leverage and more conservative structures.

Conservative underwriting, realistic business plans, and clear exit strategies are essential.

Sponsor quality also matters more than ever. Liquidity, experience, and the ability to navigate complexity all play into lender confidence. Perhaps most importantly, lenders are prioritizing structure. Deals that are thoughtfully assembled and aligned with current risk parameters are far more likely to close than those chasing maximum leverage.

Execution certainty has become more valuable than headline pricing.

Timing Is Now a Strategic Advantage

In this environment, timing is not just a logistical consideration. It is a strategic one. Sponsors who begin the refinancing process early have more flexibility to explore different capital options and structure the deal appropriately.

Waiting too long often results in limited choices and reactive decisions. In a market where structure determines outcome, time has become one of the most important forms of leverage.

Where Lever Capital Partners Helps

Refinancing today requires more than simply finding a lender. It requires aligning the right mix of capital with the realities of the deal.

At Lever Capital Partners, we work with sponsors to source and structure that capital. By accessing a broad network of banks, life companies, debt funds, mezzanine lenders, and preferred equity providers, Lever helps bridge refinancing gaps and position transactions for execution. Equally important, we translate complex situations into clear, financeable structures that lenders are willing to support.

Refinancing Is Now a Strategy

The upcoming wave of maturities will test even experienced sponsors. The difference between preserving value and losing it will often come down to how well the capital stack is designed.

In today’s market, refinancing is no longer a transaction. It is a strategy.

Industrial and Multifamily Still Dominate, But Here’s Where Real Opportunity Is Hiding in CRE Right Now

by: Adam Horowitz

Industrial and multifamily continue to lead U.S. commercial real estate investment in early 2026. Lenders understand these asset classes, capital is available, and long-term demand drivers remain intact. But as more capital crowds into the same trades, pricing tightens and real opportunity becomes harder to find.

Today, the most compelling opportunities are not disappearing. They are simply hiding in places where capital is more selective, underwriting is more complex, and financing requires a smarter approach. This is where experienced capital advisors like Lever Capital Partners help sponsors navigate complexity, structure the right capital stack, and connect deals with lenders that can actually execute.

Why Industrial and Multifamily Still Attract Capital

Industrial and multifamily remain the default choices for a reason. Both asset classes offer durable demand, relatively predictable cash flow, and deep lender familiarity. Even after several volatile years, lenders are comfortable underwriting these properties, especially in strong markets with experienced sponsors.

That comfort, however, comes with a tradeoff. Competition has increased, leverage has compressed, and investors often face lower upside unless they are buying distressed or operating at scale. For many sponsors, the challenge is no longer finding capital. It is finding returns.

Where Capital Is Quietly Shifting in 2026

As investors look beyond crowded trades, several less obvious sectors are gaining attention.

Last-mile logistics continues to benefit from e-commerce growth and delivery speed expectations. Cold storage is attracting interest as food supply chains and pharmaceutical distribution become more complex. Student housing is seeing renewed demand in supply-constrained university markets, particularly where enrollment remains strong and new construction is limited.

Medical office and life science adjacent assets are also drawing capital, especially properties tied to essential services rather than speculative lab development. Specialized residential strategies, including build-to-rent and workforce housing, are gaining traction as affordability pressures persist across major metros.

These sectors share a common theme. Demand is real, but financing is not straightforward.

The Financing Gap in Non-Traditional Assets

The biggest challenge in these emerging opportunities is not fundamentals. It is capital fit.

Many traditional banks struggle with limited comps, operational complexity, or non-standard lease structures. Debt funds may be interested, but pricing and structure vary widely. Deals often stall because the capital stack does not match the asset’s risk profile, even when the business plan is sound.

In today’s market, strong assets can fail to transact simply because they are paired with the wrong capital source.

What Capital Providers Want to See Now

In 2026, lenders and capital partners are less focused on aggressive projections and more focused on clarity and downside protection.

They want to see a clear operating story, conservative assumptions, and realistic exit planning. Sponsor experience matters, but so does the quality of operating partners. Capital providers are also paying close attention to structure, including reserves, covenants, and how risk is allocated across the stack.

Deals that succeed are designed for lender comfort, not maximum leverage.

How Smart Sponsors Are Getting These Deals Done

Sponsors closing deals in niche sectors are approaching financing strategically. Many are using blended capital stacks, combining senior debt with stretch components or preferred equity. Bridge-to-perm strategies remain common, especially where lease-up or operational improvements are required before stabilization.

Rather than forcing conventional debt onto unconventional assets, these sponsors are using structure to reduce perceived risk and increase execution certainty.

This is where experienced capital advisory becomes critical. Firms like Lever Capital Partners help sponsors translate complex asset stories into financeable transactions by matching each deal with the right mix of lenders, debt funds, and structured capital providers.

Finding Opportunity Where Capital Has Not Fully Arrived

The best CRE opportunities in 2026 are not always obvious. They exist in sectors with real demand but higher financing complexity. Investors who understand this dynamic and design their capital strategy accordingly gain a meaningful edge.

As industrial and multifamily remain crowded, the next wave of opportunity will belong to sponsors who can navigate nuance, structure intelligently, and execute with certainty. In today’s market, capital strategy is no longer a back-office function. It is a competitive advantage.

Why Lower Rates Alone Won’t Revive Commercial Real Estate

by: Cole Cornett

For much of the past year, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has looked to the Federal Reserve for long anticipated rate cuts, hoping lower rates would reduce borrowing costs, lift asset values, and restart transaction activity. Yet the CRE market is far too large, interconnected, and dependent on lender behavior for policy shifts alone to drive a meaningful recovery. According to Clarion Partners, the U.S. CRE ecosystem totals $26.8 trillion in value, with roughly $11.7 trillion considered institutionally investable and nearly $6 trillion in outstanding debt. At this scale, monetary policy cannot quickly realign liquidity, narrow credit spreads, or repair asset level fundamentals. Rate cuts may support sentiment, but real recovery depends on three forces moving together, lender confidence, spread compression, and asset performance. Until these align, lower policy rates will not generate a sustainable rebound, and Lever Capital Partners helps clients understand these dynamics so they can make decisions based on real market drivers, not policy headlines.

Financing Assumptions Are Misaligned

Many investors underwrote acquisitions and developments assuming multiple Fed cuts would materially lower the cost of capital. However, even as policy rates ease, borrowing conditions remain tight.

PGIM reports that average spreads for stabilized office and industrial loans in Q3 2025 hovered around +197 bps over benchmarks, compared with spreads 50 to 100 bps tighter in 2018 to 2019. These wider spreads have absorbed much of the benefit of a lower base rate. As a result, all in loan coupons remain elevated. According to DRK Realty, core CRE loans in 2024 generally priced between 5.3 percent and 5.5 percent, up from roughly 4 percent the prior year, reflecting risk premiums rather than monetary policy.

Underwriting standards have also tightened. EisnerAmper reports that average office LTVs declined from roughly 65 percent in 2021 to about 47 percent by 2023, materially reducing loan proceeds. Higher DSCR requirements further constrain leverage, causing many previously feasible deals to no longer pencil. Investor assumptions from 2022 to 2023 have therefore diverged sharply from lender realities, with spreads and credit discipline, not Fed actions, determining loan terms.

The Buyer and Seller Disconnect Persists

Even with modest rate relief, buyers and sellers remain divided on valuation. Altus Group reports that U.S. CRE transaction volume reached $369.8 billion in 2024, only slightly below 2023 levels. While Q4 2024 delivered $108.5 billion in trades, a 33.6 percent increase from Q3, pricing expectations remain far apart.

Many sellers interpret early rate cuts as support for firm or higher valuations. Buyers, however, continue to wait for clearer evidence of stabilized financing markets, narrowing spreads, and reduced rate volatility. As a result, cap rates remain sticky and price discovery lags, with perceived liquidity and macro uncertainty influencing negotiations as much as projected income growth.

Liquidity, Not Policy, Drives Recovery

While rate cuts can support momentum, liquidity ultimately drives the CRE market. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that total CRE borrowing and lending increased 16 percent in 2024 to approximately $498 billion, yet activity remains well below peak levels. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Fed notes that delinquency rates climbed to 1.57 percent, the highest level in more than a decade, representing over $47 billion in stressed loans.

An even greater challenge is the 2025 maturity wall. Kaplan Collection Agency estimates that $957 billion in CRE loans will mature in 2025, nearly three times the long term average. This refinancing pressure keeps lenders cautious regardless of Fed policy direction. Until lenders regain confidence in asset performance and valuation stability, lower rates will not automatically translate into higher leverage or tighter spreads. Rate cuts may help sentiment, but recovery begins only when lenders believe cash flows are durable and valuations predictable, allowing liquidity to return and spreads to compress.

How Lever Capital Partners Supports Clients

In a market where optimism often moves faster than fundamentals, Lever Capital Partners provides a grounded perspective. With relationships across banks, life companies, debt funds, private credit providers, and alternative capital sources, Lever helps clients navigate real time credit conditions. By assessing spreads, liquidity trends, maturity risk, and lender appetite, Lever structures capital solutions aligned with the true cost and availability of debt today.

Sources:

https://www.kaplancollectionagency.com/business-advice/is-commercial-real-estate-at-a-breaking-point-in-2025

https://www.clarionpartners.com/insights/us-cre-investable-universe

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/may/commercial-real-estate-in-focus

https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/04/24/total-commercial-real-estate-borrowing-and-lending-increased-16-percent-in-2024

https://drk-realty.com/commercial-real-estate-news-articles/commercial-real-estate-loan-rates-in-2024

https://www.cbre.com/press-releases/commercial-real-estate-lending-momentum-reaches-highest-level-since-2018-cbre

https://www.pgim.com/us/en/institutional/insights/asset-class/real-estate/u.s.-cre-debt-now-time-to-invest-amid-historically-high-spreads

https://www.eisneramper.com/insights/real-estate/commercial-real-estate-outlook-0124

https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/us-cre-transactions-q4-2024

https://agorareal.com/blog/commercial-real-estate-lending-trends

Why Data Centers and Cold Storage Are Gaining Institutional Momentum

by: Ivan Rubio

Investor interest in data centers and cold storage has accelerated in recent years. Once viewed as niche property types, they are increasingly becoming core components of institutional portfolios. Demand for digital infrastructure, supply chain modernization, and reliable long-term income has pushed these assets into the spotlight. Strong fundamentals, high barriers to entry, and resilient tenant demand position both sectors as attractive options for investors seeking durable returns amid continued volatility across traditional commercial real estate. Lever Capital Partners supports sponsors pursuing these opportunities by arranging flexible capital solutions for complex and specialized property types.

Digital Infrastructure and Modern Logistics: Twin Engines of Growth

Rapid growth in data usage, cloud computing, and ecommerce continues to drive demand for specialized real estate. Industry data highlights the strength of this trend. CBRE reports that average vacancy rates in primary data center markets fell to a record low 2.8 percent, while preleasing rates for new construction reached record highs in 2024.

Data centers underpin the digital economy, supporting everything from AI applications to streaming services. Cold storage facilities play a similarly critical role in logistics, serving grocery distribution, pharmaceuticals, and temperature-sensitive goods. In both cases, the underlying demand is structural rather than cyclical.

These asset classes share a key characteristic: they are mission critical. Tenants cannot tolerate disruptions in data processing or temperature control, making them more willing to sign long-term leases and absorb higher rents. At the same time, limited developer expertise and high capital requirements restrict new supply. This imbalance supports stable performance, predictable cash flow, and strong pricing power for experienced owners.

Diversification and Institutional Appeal

As office and certain retail segments continue to face headwinds, institutional investors are increasingly allocating capital to alternative property types. Deloitte notes that the value of alternative assets within commercial real estate portfolios has grown by approximately 10 percent annually since 2000, with expectations for continued acceleration.

Data centers and cold storage also offer differentiated risk profiles. Revenue is often supported by creditworthy tenants in essential industries such as technology, logistics, and healthcare. According to Newmark, average cold storage rents have increased more than 100 percent since 2020, prompting some occupiers to explore ownership to manage long-term costs. Sustained rent growth and limited supply continue to attract institutional capital.

Pension funds, REITs, and private equity firms increasingly view these assets as long-term, income-producing investments comparable to multifamily and industrial. Their consistent demand helps offset exposure to weaker sectors. Many investors also mitigate execution risk by partnering with experienced operators who bring technical and operational expertise.

For institutions prioritizing capital preservation and steady yield, these property types offer a compelling balance of resilience and growth.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

Despite strong fundamentals, data centers and cold storage present real challenges. High construction costs, energy intensity, and complex zoning requirements create meaningful barriers to development. Colliers notes that developers must manage power constraints, water usage concerns, regulatory approvals, and community opposition while maintaining tight project timelines. Rising costs for land, power infrastructure, and specialized equipment further complicate execution.

However, these challenges reinforce the scarcity value of existing assets. As technology adoption continues and global supply chains become more complex, demand for these facilities is expected to remain strong. Well-capitalized sponsors with sector experience are best positioned to benefit from continued growth. Over the coming decade, institutional allocations to these specialized assets are likely to increase.

How Lever Capital Partners Can Help

Lever Capital Partners works with experienced sponsors to secure financing for data centers, cold storage, and other specialized property types. In sectors where traditional lenders may be cautious, LCP provides creative debt and equity solutions aligned with project requirements.

By leveraging relationships with trusted lending partners, LCP supports efficient execution and flexible capital structures. Whether expanding digital infrastructure or developing new cold storage facilities, LCP helps sponsors access the capital needed to move projects forward.

Office Cap Rates Cool, Hinting at Value Bottom?

by: Yurick Lee

After two years of turbulence, the U.S. office market may be nearing a turning point. According to CBRE’s H1 2025 Cap Rate Survey, stronger income prospects, easing capital pressures, and improved investor sentiment are emerging across major metros. Cap rates, which peaked in 2024, have begun to ease, signaling that values may be stabilizing and optimism is returning, even for lower-tier assets.

While elevated financing costs continue to weigh on deal flow, these early signs suggest that pricing stability is setting in. Here at Lever Capital Partners, we’ve also seen a meaningful increase in interest across our office mandates, a sharp change from just a year ago. For investors, this period could mark the early stages of a reset, one where patient capital begins to reprice risk and position for recovery.

Cap Rate Trends Suggest Pricing Stability and Renewed Investor Confidence

Office cap rates are finally showing signs of leveling off. CBRE’s H1 2025 Cap Rate Survey notes that “cap rates have declined slightly and yields appear to be at (or beyond) their cyclical peak,” suggesting the market may have reached a turning point.

Investor sentiment is improving as values stabilize and income prospects strengthen. CBRE’s market brief indicates most participants believe cap rates have peaked, signaling growing confidence that the correction phase is largely behind us.

For lower-tier or value-add assets, once hit hardest by hybrid work and tighter lending, this shift could reopen opportunities as tenants return and pricing normalizes in select markets.

Elevated Financing Costs Continue to Shape Short-Term Strategies

Despite a more positive tone, financing costs remain a defining factor in the market’s next phase. Even as inflation cools, borrowing rates have not dropped meaningfully. According to CBRE’s market outlook, office cap rates rose “by at least 200 basis points” between early 2022 and late 2023 as higher interest rates pushed up borrowing costs and reduced proceeds from traditional lenders.

This environment has forced investors to rethink underwriting assumptions and deal structures. Rather than waiting for dramatic rate cuts, many are now building models around sustained higher-rate conditions, seeking predictability over perfection. As a result, investment strategies are evolving: shorter hold periods, lower leverage, and an increased emphasis on stable income are becoming the norm.

Meanwhile, the growth of private credit underscores how tighter liquidity and elevated rates have redefined the capital landscape. With banks maintaining conservative positions, private lenders and alternative credit platforms are stepping into the void, offering sponsors more creative, but often costlier, financing options.

Sponsors Are Turning to Alternative Capital to Bridge Until Markets Normalize

With traditional lending channels constrained, sponsors are increasingly turning to bridge loans, mezzanine debt, and preferred equity to keep projects funded and flexible. These layers of capital fill critical gaps between senior debt and sponsor equity, allowing transactions to proceed even when conventional financing is limited.

Citrin Cooperman’s 2025 Real Estate Financing Outlook highlights that mezzanine and preferred equity have become vital tools for bridging short-term funding needs. Similarly, Gibson Dunn’s 2025 Commercial Real Estate Insights notes that non-bank lenders and alternative capital providers are stepping up to supply liquidity, particularly in transitional and value-add office assets.

These flexible structures allow sponsors to refinance later into long-term, lower-cost debt once market conditions stabilize. In effect, they keep projects moving forward, preserving asset value and investor relationships during the recovery phase.

How Lever Capital Partners Can Help

As traditional lenders remain cautious, Lever Capital Partners (LCP) helps sponsors access the flexible capital they need to keep deals alive. By arranging structured financing solutions, including mezzanine and preferred equity layers, LCP helps bridge the gap between limited senior proceeds and total project cost.

This strategy enables sponsors to maintain project momentum today and refinance into lower-cost, long-term loans once the market fully normalizes. For assets in weaker office markets, such customized capital stacks are often the difference between stalled and successful outcomes.

With cap rates beginning to cool and investor sentiment improving, the bottom of the office market may already be in sight. Sponsors who act decisively, leveraging creative capital to stabilize assets now, will be best positioned to benefit when the recovery accelerates.he next cycle of innovation, partnership, and long-term value creation in commercial real estate.

$2 Trillion Maturity Wall: Navigating the Coming Refinancing Wave

by: Adam Horowitz

Over the next 18 months, nearly $2 trillion in CRE loans are scheduled to mature across the country. What’s emerging is a defining challenge, and opportunity, for both borrowers and lenders: a refinancing wall that demands creative capital solutions.

Many of these loans were originated during the low-rate era between 2019 and 2021, when abundant liquidity and compressed cap rates fueled aggressive underwriting. Today, high interest rates, lower valuations, and cautious lending have converged to make refinancing increasingly difficult. The result is a market-wide repricing cycle that’s testing every part of the capital stack.

A Market at a Crossroads

Rising rates have eroded property values and debt service coverage ratios across most major asset classes. In certain markets, valuations are down 20-40% from peak levels, making full refinancing at par nearly impossible.

Traditional lenders, particularly regional and community banks, are tightening exposure and prioritizing renewals over new originations. Meanwhile, private credit and debt funds are stepping in to capture market share, often providing flexible bridge or structured debt where banks have pulled back.

This shift has turned the capital markets landscape into a dual-track system: institutional lenders remain selective, while private capital is driving most of the transaction flow. For borrowers, this means navigating a more fragmented market, one where relationships, credibility, and creative structuring matter more than ever.

The Borrower’s Challenge

For many owners, the refinancing wall represents a squeeze between valuations and debt capacity. Properties with stable income but lower appraised values can’t support their existing loan balances under today’s higher rates.

Lenders are increasingly offering short-term extensions, partial paydowns, or structured modifications to buy time, but these solutions often come with tighter loan covenants and higher pricing. For others, the answer lies in bringing new capital to the table through pref equity, mezz, or JV recaps.

From Crisis to Opportunity

Behind the headlines of distress lies a more dynamic reality, a market flush with capital seeking yield and structure. Opportunistic investors and funds are actively targeting recapitalization opportunities rather than foreclosures.

Sponsors willing to engage early and restructure intelligently can position their assets for long-term stability, or even expansion. Creative refinancing strategies, executed with the right capital partner, can transform a maturity problem into a value creation moment.

How Lever Capital Partners Can Help

At Lever Capital Partners, we specialize in helping clients navigate complex refinancing and recapitalization scenarios through a combination of market insight, capital relationships, and structuring expertise.

  • Creative Refinancing Solutions – We arrange bridge loans, mezzanine financing, and preferred equity to help borrowers close the refinancing gap without losing control of their assets.
  • Access to Active Capital Sources – Our relationships span private credit funds, institutional lenders, and family offices seeking exposure to well-structured CRE debt opportunities.
  • Strategic Advisory on Extensions & Recaps – We guide sponsors through loan modifications, extensions, and partial paydowns, preserving flexibility and ownership.
  • Capital Stack Optimization – From senior debt to equity, we design tailored capital stacks that align with each project’s cash flow, risk profile, and long-term vision.
  • Market Intelligence & Positioning – Our team provides real-time insight into lender sentiment, spreads, and underwriting criteria, ensuring each client’s financing package stands out.

Turning the Wall into a Window

The coming refinancing wave will separate reactive borrowers from strategic ones. Those who act early, communicate transparently with lenders, and engage experienced capital advisors can transform pressure into opportunity.

For Lever Capital Partners and our clients, this $2 trillion maturity wall represents not a dead end, but a window into the next cycle of innovation, partnership, and long-term value creation in commercial real estate.