Tag Archives: InstitutionalInvesting

Why Lower Rates Alone Won’t Revive Commercial Real Estate

by: Cole Cornett

For much of the past year, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has looked to the Federal Reserve for long anticipated rate cuts, hoping lower rates would reduce borrowing costs, lift asset values, and restart transaction activity. Yet the CRE market is far too large, interconnected, and dependent on lender behavior for policy shifts alone to drive a meaningful recovery. According to Clarion Partners, the U.S. CRE ecosystem totals $26.8 trillion in value, with roughly $11.7 trillion considered institutionally investable and nearly $6 trillion in outstanding debt. At this scale, monetary policy cannot quickly realign liquidity, narrow credit spreads, or repair asset level fundamentals. Rate cuts may support sentiment, but real recovery depends on three forces moving together, lender confidence, spread compression, and asset performance. Until these align, lower policy rates will not generate a sustainable rebound, and Lever Capital Partners helps clients understand these dynamics so they can make decisions based on real market drivers, not policy headlines.

Financing Assumptions Are Misaligned

Many investors underwrote acquisitions and developments assuming multiple Fed cuts would materially lower the cost of capital. However, even as policy rates ease, borrowing conditions remain tight.

PGIM reports that average spreads for stabilized office and industrial loans in Q3 2025 hovered around +197 bps over benchmarks, compared with spreads 50 to 100 bps tighter in 2018 to 2019. These wider spreads have absorbed much of the benefit of a lower base rate. As a result, all in loan coupons remain elevated. According to DRK Realty, core CRE loans in 2024 generally priced between 5.3 percent and 5.5 percent, up from roughly 4 percent the prior year, reflecting risk premiums rather than monetary policy.

Underwriting standards have also tightened. EisnerAmper reports that average office LTVs declined from roughly 65 percent in 2021 to about 47 percent by 2023, materially reducing loan proceeds. Higher DSCR requirements further constrain leverage, causing many previously feasible deals to no longer pencil. Investor assumptions from 2022 to 2023 have therefore diverged sharply from lender realities, with spreads and credit discipline, not Fed actions, determining loan terms.

The Buyer and Seller Disconnect Persists

Even with modest rate relief, buyers and sellers remain divided on valuation. Altus Group reports that U.S. CRE transaction volume reached $369.8 billion in 2024, only slightly below 2023 levels. While Q4 2024 delivered $108.5 billion in trades, a 33.6 percent increase from Q3, pricing expectations remain far apart.

Many sellers interpret early rate cuts as support for firm or higher valuations. Buyers, however, continue to wait for clearer evidence of stabilized financing markets, narrowing spreads, and reduced rate volatility. As a result, cap rates remain sticky and price discovery lags, with perceived liquidity and macro uncertainty influencing negotiations as much as projected income growth.

Liquidity, Not Policy, Drives Recovery

While rate cuts can support momentum, liquidity ultimately drives the CRE market. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that total CRE borrowing and lending increased 16 percent in 2024 to approximately $498 billion, yet activity remains well below peak levels. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Fed notes that delinquency rates climbed to 1.57 percent, the highest level in more than a decade, representing over $47 billion in stressed loans.

An even greater challenge is the 2025 maturity wall. Kaplan Collection Agency estimates that $957 billion in CRE loans will mature in 2025, nearly three times the long term average. This refinancing pressure keeps lenders cautious regardless of Fed policy direction. Until lenders regain confidence in asset performance and valuation stability, lower rates will not automatically translate into higher leverage or tighter spreads. Rate cuts may help sentiment, but recovery begins only when lenders believe cash flows are durable and valuations predictable, allowing liquidity to return and spreads to compress.

How Lever Capital Partners Supports Clients

In a market where optimism often moves faster than fundamentals, Lever Capital Partners provides a grounded perspective. With relationships across banks, life companies, debt funds, private credit providers, and alternative capital sources, Lever helps clients navigate real time credit conditions. By assessing spreads, liquidity trends, maturity risk, and lender appetite, Lever structures capital solutions aligned with the true cost and availability of debt today.

Sources:

https://www.kaplancollectionagency.com/business-advice/is-commercial-real-estate-at-a-breaking-point-in-2025

https://www.clarionpartners.com/insights/us-cre-investable-universe

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/may/commercial-real-estate-in-focus

https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/04/24/total-commercial-real-estate-borrowing-and-lending-increased-16-percent-in-2024

https://drk-realty.com/commercial-real-estate-news-articles/commercial-real-estate-loan-rates-in-2024

https://www.cbre.com/press-releases/commercial-real-estate-lending-momentum-reaches-highest-level-since-2018-cbre

https://www.pgim.com/us/en/institutional/insights/asset-class/real-estate/u.s.-cre-debt-now-time-to-invest-amid-historically-high-spreads

https://www.eisneramper.com/insights/real-estate/commercial-real-estate-outlook-0124

https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/us-cre-transactions-q4-2024

https://agorareal.com/blog/commercial-real-estate-lending-trends

Why Data Centers and Cold Storage Are Gaining Institutional Momentum

by: Ivan Rubio

Investor interest in data centers and cold storage has accelerated in recent years. Once viewed as niche property types, they are increasingly becoming core components of institutional portfolios. Demand for digital infrastructure, supply chain modernization, and reliable long-term income has pushed these assets into the spotlight. Strong fundamentals, high barriers to entry, and resilient tenant demand position both sectors as attractive options for investors seeking durable returns amid continued volatility across traditional commercial real estate. Lever Capital Partners supports sponsors pursuing these opportunities by arranging flexible capital solutions for complex and specialized property types.

Digital Infrastructure and Modern Logistics: Twin Engines of Growth

Rapid growth in data usage, cloud computing, and ecommerce continues to drive demand for specialized real estate. Industry data highlights the strength of this trend. CBRE reports that average vacancy rates in primary data center markets fell to a record low 2.8 percent, while preleasing rates for new construction reached record highs in 2024.

Data centers underpin the digital economy, supporting everything from AI applications to streaming services. Cold storage facilities play a similarly critical role in logistics, serving grocery distribution, pharmaceuticals, and temperature-sensitive goods. In both cases, the underlying demand is structural rather than cyclical.

These asset classes share a key characteristic: they are mission critical. Tenants cannot tolerate disruptions in data processing or temperature control, making them more willing to sign long-term leases and absorb higher rents. At the same time, limited developer expertise and high capital requirements restrict new supply. This imbalance supports stable performance, predictable cash flow, and strong pricing power for experienced owners.

Diversification and Institutional Appeal

As office and certain retail segments continue to face headwinds, institutional investors are increasingly allocating capital to alternative property types. Deloitte notes that the value of alternative assets within commercial real estate portfolios has grown by approximately 10 percent annually since 2000, with expectations for continued acceleration.

Data centers and cold storage also offer differentiated risk profiles. Revenue is often supported by creditworthy tenants in essential industries such as technology, logistics, and healthcare. According to Newmark, average cold storage rents have increased more than 100 percent since 2020, prompting some occupiers to explore ownership to manage long-term costs. Sustained rent growth and limited supply continue to attract institutional capital.

Pension funds, REITs, and private equity firms increasingly view these assets as long-term, income-producing investments comparable to multifamily and industrial. Their consistent demand helps offset exposure to weaker sectors. Many investors also mitigate execution risk by partnering with experienced operators who bring technical and operational expertise.

For institutions prioritizing capital preservation and steady yield, these property types offer a compelling balance of resilience and growth.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

Despite strong fundamentals, data centers and cold storage present real challenges. High construction costs, energy intensity, and complex zoning requirements create meaningful barriers to development. Colliers notes that developers must manage power constraints, water usage concerns, regulatory approvals, and community opposition while maintaining tight project timelines. Rising costs for land, power infrastructure, and specialized equipment further complicate execution.

However, these challenges reinforce the scarcity value of existing assets. As technology adoption continues and global supply chains become more complex, demand for these facilities is expected to remain strong. Well-capitalized sponsors with sector experience are best positioned to benefit from continued growth. Over the coming decade, institutional allocations to these specialized assets are likely to increase.

How Lever Capital Partners Can Help

Lever Capital Partners works with experienced sponsors to secure financing for data centers, cold storage, and other specialized property types. In sectors where traditional lenders may be cautious, LCP provides creative debt and equity solutions aligned with project requirements.

By leveraging relationships with trusted lending partners, LCP supports efficient execution and flexible capital structures. Whether expanding digital infrastructure or developing new cold storage facilities, LCP helps sponsors access the capital needed to move projects forward.