By: Jacky Cheng

As we approach the two-year anniversary of the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, it is important to recognize how quickly society has adapted to new work routines and in turn how that has impacted certain areas within the real estate market. With the significant migration from metropolitan to suburban and rural areas, the office and retail markets have struggled, requiring many investors to get creative in how they capitalize on the distressed opportunities. Additionally, working from home has increased the demand for single and multifamily properties. In turn, residential housing prices have skyrocketed, leaving many hopeful homebuyers unable to afford homeownership. As a handful of employers start to welcome their employees back to the office, there is one pandemic trend that is here to stay: the demand for flexible and short-term apartment and single-family home rentals.

Most US workers were not traditionally accustomed to working from the comfort of their own homes. However, due to the stay-at-home restriction during the pandemic, many workers started to utilize short-term rentals in more remote locations. With the uncertainty around when people would be able to return to the office and the risks associated with densely populated metro areas, many employees fled major cities. An astounding number of professionals took the opportunity to experience a nomadic lifestyle, living in a new place every month. While hospitality struggled due to sanitary concerns and regulations, short-term rental demand increased exponentially, leaving Airbnb as the big winner. Because of Airbnb’s business model, they quickly adapted to the changing landscape and were able to offer “covid proof” lodging accommodations that traditional hotels couldn’t compete with.  Although many workers are returning to their normal commutes, housing companies are predicting that 20% of workers will continue to work remotely. That 20% represents about 36 million workers, leaving a significant market for short-term rental accommodations. These short-term housing companies are betting that renters will ditch the traditional 12-month lease if a more convenient and flexible alternative is available. That is why companies such as Blueground, June Homes, and Landing are expanding into new cities and adding thousands of units to their platforms. Even JLL and Brookfield want a cut of the pie through strategic partnerships with companies specializing in short-term rentals.

Companies like Blueground, a New York City-based apartment rental company, were able to raise significant capital. Blueground raised $140 million in September 2021. Although Blueground had setbacks due to the pandemic, they are still planning to aggressively expand to 30,000 units by 2025 from the current 5,000 units. The pandemic has accelerated the trend that Blueground relied on: flexibility. The financing that Blueground was able to obtain given the current circumstances was extremely attractive and provides support for the growing market trends in short-term rentals.

Looking at future trends, new demand for short-term rentals will return to the cities according to AirDNA predictions. As vaccines are distributed and attractions reopen, urban travel is expected to begin to recover in early 2022, with urban demand exceeding 2019 levels by 2023. Urban rentals could rebound even quicker than anticipated if business travelers opt for private accommodations, rather than traditional hotels. As the US reopens its borders to international travelers, demand in once highly sought-after urban markets, such as New York, San Francisco, and Miami, will rebound and likely exceed pre-pandemic levels. The increasing demand for short-term rentals will bring in thousands of new hosts, allowing more and more people to stay in short-term rentals instead of traditional hotels. This would create an opportunity for investors to meet the demand by supplying more short-term rentals, whether it is in the suburbs or in mid to large cities.

Unlike hotels, extended trips will become more common than they were pre-pandemic due to flexibility. According to AirDNA, in Q1 2021, the average length of stay was four days, 25% higher than before the pandemic. As leisure and business travel returns to cities that were heavily impacted by the pandemic, the length of stay is expected to shorten, but remain materially higher than 2019 levels. The norm is that more travelers will combine business trips with leisure, which will extend trips, creating a demand for mid-term accommodations.

Multifamily and single-family assets have become very popular because of the current market trends. With limited new supply and strong demand, most short-term rental operators are able to continue gradually raising rates, in turn increasing the revenue earned per unit. Due to the scarcity of housing supply and increasing demand, rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future, making single and multi-family rentals more and more attractive to investors. The drive to meet the housing supply needs will prompt more real estate development in suburban markets. Meanwhile, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and mutual funds are aggressively looking to deploy capital in these assets in 2022 as they have significant dry powder ready to be invested.

In a constantly changing market, one slow step could be a missed opportunity. At Lever Capital Partners, our steadfast team of industry experts track the latest trends and understand how to source and utilize the best available capital. Whether you are looking for an equity partner, a lender, or a combination to fund your next project, Lever can advise you on obtaining the most attractive financing the market has to offer. Here at Lever Capital Partners, we pride ourselves on our wide range of experience in refinancing, recapitalizing, converting assets, ground-up construction, acquisitions, and our overall creativity in getting our clients the capital they need for any commercial real estate related transaction. Our industry professionals look forward to speaking with you about your next project.

References:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/short-stay-housing-companies-are-confident-even-as-workers-return-to-the-office-11633435200

https://www.bisnow.com/london/news/hotel/short-term-rentals-digital-platforms-create-opportunities-for-asset-owners-110400

https://therealdeal.com/2021/09/21/blueground-raises-140m-in-series-c-equity-valuing-startup-at-750-million/

By: Liam Lewis

As we end the first quarter of 2021, the commercial real estate investing landscape is experiencing many changes. Entering the second quarter, everyone wants to know which asset classes will see quick recovery and which will continue to struggle in the post-Covid world. In the past 12 months, the pandemic has reshaped many industries. These shifts have demanded that investors adjust and have also expanded our ability to understand how external factors dramatically impact tenant and investor demand. In 2020 and into 2021, retail and office assets have faced challenges that no one ever predicted. These unprecedented circumstances have forced us to quickly adapt and underwrite assets in different ways to meet both tenant and investor needs driving creativity and innovation in the process. The pandemic has impacted economies around the world, tenant needs have shifted, and in turn, capital supply has changed as well.

Given the covid challenges that office and retail are facing, many investors are reassessing portfolio distribution. Thanks to the e-commerce boom spawned by the pandemic, industrial assets are offering a more conservative investment opportunity, whether it be core+ acquisitions with credit tenants or ground-up build-to-suit construction. Investors are not the only ones adjusting and capitalizing on these shifts in the industrial space. Institutional capital is becoming more and more readily available especially in terms of industrial development and acquisitions. Not only is the institutional space growing, but private capital is coming in with increased flexibility. Some of the creative options that we have seen in the first quarter and expect to see even more moving forward include the use of senior stretch loans, mezzanine debt, preferred equity, and sale-leasebacks to fill the gaps left by institutional money. In terms of capital availability, investors and lenders are holding a significant amount of dry powder, especially compared to where we were a year ago today. Industrial assets are shifting from the least favorite food group to being highly sought after by investors, lenders, and tenants.

To determine the sustainability of this spike in demand we must explore the driving factors. E-Commerce is defined as any purchase or sale of a good or service through an online platform. In retail e-commerce (of physical goods), yearly total revenue increased by $71.55B in 2020 and is projected to increase by another $131.74B by year-end 2025 (Statista). This exponential growth is a great indicator of what’s to come in terms of industrial space demand. Before 2020 yearly growth averaged only $37.09B per year. To put this into perspective, e-commerce retail revenue grew 120% in 2020 even as the Covid pandemic put the brakes on the overall economy. The revenue growth rate is expected to continue this pattern and we will likely see yearly growth breach 100% yearly through 2025. In the fast-paced world of e-commerce, logistics and distribution are central concerns that are driving a focus in purchasing on increasing efficiency and reducing logistics-related expenses. With this dramatic change we have seen as a result of Covid and technological advancement, it’s only fair to ask, how is this impacting industrial space needs?

With this dramatic increase in demand and the expectations of its continued growth, industrial asset needs will continue to skyrocket. As more and more products are purchased online, these retailers are facing scale challenges that in most cases have to do with manufacturing and warehouse capacity. With 1 and 2-day delivery becoming increasingly popular, and soon to be a must, companies have to rethink the way each product is getting from the manufacturer to its final destination. A key term to understand here is “last-mile” delivery/distribution. The “last-mile” is the final step in the transportation and delivery process. This is defined as the period in which the product leaves the last checkpoint and arrives at the final destination. This “last-mile” is the most expensive (about 50% of supply chain costs) and time-consuming part of the shipping process. In the wake of such dramatic demand growth, companies are doing anything possible to cut logistics-related costs. A trend that we are seeing, as a result, is an increase in the number of industrial warehouses that companies are leasing, building, or acquiring. Real estate expenses currently only reflect 3-5% of supply chain costs, providing a perfect opportunity to reduce expenses. In order to reduce the expenses involved with “last-mile” delivery, you must increase the number of hubs you own, which in turn reduces transport distances. With increased demand also comes increased inventory levels, impacting space needs significantly and pushing firms to buy, lease or build bigger warehouses. In 2020 there was a record 680 million square feet (MSF) of new industrial space leased in the Americas alone (Area Development). A logistical transition is upon us that presents ample opportunity when it comes to lending on or investing in industrial assets.

Product demand has seen significant growth in the last few years, and the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated it. The increasing demand for products sold online and quick delivery is directly impacting suppliers, manufacturing levels, and of course demand for industrial assets. A key contributing factor to demand for industrial space is the quick recovery seen in US manufacturing. Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at IHS Markit reported that “the US manufacturing sector is close to fully recovering the output lost to the pandemic last year.” Manufacturing levels have reached a 3-year high, and the exponential demand we are witnessing is pushing suppliers to their limits.

The combination of the intense demand growth seen in the last year, and 1-to-2-day delivery norms is recreating the increased need for industrial space. With these shifts in the market, capital must also adapt and realign itself with the changing times. Reflecting on conversations with many capital groups at the 2021 MBA conference, as well as several current clients, we are very aware of the dry powder available, and what it’s looking for moving forward. Here at Lever Capital Partners, we understand that when trends like this present themselves, the capital is not far behind. Whether your needs include debt,  joint venture equity, or secondary financing, we are confident that we can assist you along the way, while emphasizing efficiency and transparency.

References:

https://www.cbre.us/research-and-reports/2021-US-Real-Estate-Market-Outlook-Industrial-Logistics

https://www.tylercauble.com/blog/commercial-real-estate-investing-in-2021-trends-markets

https://www.jpmorgan.com/commercial-banking/insights/commercial-real-estate-trends-2021

https://www.areadevelopment.com/portfolio-management/Q1-2021/whats-driving-record-industrial-real-estate-demand.shtml\

https://finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/american-manufacturing-roar-back-morning-brief-110228696.html

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183750/us-retail-e-commerce-sales-figures/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/272391/us-retail-e-commerce-sales-forecast/

By: Aesha Mehta

The Industrial market has turned from the ugly stepchild of the 4 major food groups into a sought after commodity, especially in the last year. A subcategory of industrial that you might not be that familiar with is Cold Storage. These facilities store perishable products such as fruits, vegetables, meat, or fish under controlled conditions for long periods of time. Cold storage is becoming crucially important because of a need to store the Covid-19 vaccine as well as food distribution via e-commerce that has grown immensely over the last 12 months.

How the Financing Markets are Heating Up to Cold Storage

Consumers are purchasing much more food via e-commerce because it was a very convenient and easily accessible solution during the lockdown. In particular, Amazon Fresh’s sales have grown by allowing customers to purchase and receive deliveries for their groceries and consumer products. The future of cold storage is still untold because it will be more prevalent when more pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson and Johnson, Sanofi, and Bayer come out with approved vaccines with FDA approval along with the current demand of the vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. With consumer trends shifting to buying more items online, the investors we speak with believe that increasing Cold Storage assets in their portfolio will be inevitable.

The future of cold storage has endless possibilities that will not diminish anytime soon due to the increased food distributions through e-commerce channels. According to David Egan, senior director and global head of research for CBRE, “food in the U.S. is a category worth approximately $2.5 trillion, with grocery sales representing almost $1 trillion of that number. If e-commerce grocery sales grow to 15% penetration, that’s about $150 billion in sales that would shift from an in-store model to an online model. To put that in perspective, all e-commerce in the U.S. is about $500 billion” (NAIOP). Based on these statistics, this showcases how attractive cold storage is becoming in 2021 and where institutional investors will look in the coming years as a major investment for cold storage as an asset class in the industrial real estate sector. 

The Changing Landscape of Available Capital

Prior to COVID-19, cold storage was primarily used by grocery store distributors to help facilitate their sales of produce and meats along with a growing demand from e-commerce companies. Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL), a global commercial real estate services company, mentions, “In May 2018, Blackstone, one of the most prolific investors in commercial real estate, purchased a 2.3-million-square-foot portfolio of nine industrial properties that were primarily cold storage facilities for $255 million at a 6.25 percent cap rate.” Due to these new changes and demands, lenders and investors are now looking at this niche market as an attractive investment. Lever Capital Partners and their sister firms at the Real Estate Capital Alliance held a virtual MBA in early February. At that event many capital providers talked about lending and investing in Cold Storage for the first time. Once a majority of capital providers sees the Cold Storage space as a critical component of the Industrial segment rather than a niche business, the competitive landscape will increase thereby increasing the competition for available capital.

We’re Here to Guide You!

Lever Capital Partners knows the Cold Storage business and in fact financed their first one back in 2005 in a Boston suburb. We have increased our tracking of available capital due to the occurrences we’ve seen in the last few years and can help guide you through today’s capital availability. Our team of industrial experts will advise on your ability to get financing up and down the capital stack utilizing debt and equity for acquisitions, adaptive reuse, or development. Because we’re a relationship oriented firm, our preference would be to work with established sponsors looking for programmatic capital rather than one-off projects. Please reach out so we can quickly evaluate your project and guide you towards the best available capital!

Sources:

https://www.naiop.org/Research-and-Publications/Magazine/2020/Spring-2020/Business-Trends/The-Cold-Storage-Market-is-Heating-Up

https://www.us.jll.com/en/views/cold-storage-demand

By Keren Goshen

Feb 4, 2021

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We entered January 2020 with unprecedented momentum. A strong economic outlook called for a year of tremendous growth after nearly a decade of global economic expansion. While all the indicators of growth and success presented themselves, the global pandemic put the era of growth to a screeching halt; leading to a year of tremendous loss and uncertainty, changing the world as we know it.

A year later, with the vaccine rollout in full swing and the end to election uncertainty, we anticipate 2021 will be a strong year for the capital gains market. We are seeing a positive market outlook that boasts low interest rates, banks and investors flush with cash, and an S&P 500 index that’s up 3.8% YTD.

While we anticipate a strong year of recovery, we gathered the latest research and interviewed the most influential CRE experts to expand on our predictions. Here is what they have to say.

Distressed commercial real estate loans and discounted asset sales will continue to rise 

The Fool reports 20 large real estate firms have filed for bankruptcy by the end of 2020, including two with more than $50 million in assets. In the next five years, CoStar Group predicts there will be a more than $126 billion flash sale of distressed commercial real estate, equating to $321 billion in sales by 2025.

Additionally, data from the Federal Reserve shows commercial property debt increased to a record of $3.06 trillion for the first time during the third quarter of last year, up from $2.2 trillion in the third quarter of 2012, which was a 10-year low.

Brock Cannon, Head of National Loan Sales at Newmark believes the distress created as a result of COVID will last beyond our predicted 5-year growth period. He says, “my team is still working on sales that originated in 2007 and 2008, thirteen years later. We will be working through this distress for at least ten years to come.”

Bid-Ask Spread to Lessen 

Distressed deals in 2020 were also challenged with a large bid-ask spread, a leading indicator of illiquidity of the market. We anticipate that the spread shrinks in 2021, due to lenders having more realistic expectations of below-par sales and increased available capital.

Chris Skinner, author, speaker and expert on banking says the lasting impact will stretch beyond 2021 saying, “it’s not just in the CRE space but in all aspects of society. Most people had exposures to loss in 2020 and they will pass those losses onto the banks. Expect a major downturn and increasing NPLs through to 2025.”

Hotel and Retail Will Struggle to Recover; Office Recovery Uncertain

FitchRatings reports that hotel and retail delinquencies rose to $2.0 billion in December 2020 from $1.5 billion in November. New delinquencies were largely made up of $1.2 billion in hotel loans and $582 million in retail loans. The delinquency report from Moody’s Analytics paints the same picture.

Adam Horowitz, Principal at Lever Capital Partners, shares a different perspective. “Every time there is a downturn in the market, funds are raised with the anticipation of a flood of NPLS hitting the market,” he says.

Research from Real Capital Analytics indicates that CMBS had the highest leverage and market share during the last crisis. This time around, we are seeing higher leverage with direct lenders and banks. However, CMBS is more concentrated in the hotel and retail areas, which will be reflected in deeper discounts on CMBS distressed sales.

Marco Santarelli, Founder and CEO of Norada Real Estate Investments points out that while the commercial space is suffering, residential real estate remains strong. He says “the brick and mortar retail space has suffered the most, but demand for homes, logistics and storage have increased.”

Unanimous Uncertainty and Novel Ideas Around Office Recovery

CBRE predicts that the office sector will recover the slowest from pre-pandemic investment volumes. The cloud of uncertainty around the future of work and office spaces are widely shared across the board, with a general consensus that evolving trends that include remote and flexible working are here to stay.

New York Times editor, Matthew Haag, suggests NYC’s real estate can be positively transformed if office spaces are converted to residential spaces. Data shows that job growth in New York City has tremendously outpaced housing growth, leading to a massive housing shortage. While this would require zoning and density rules to change by the City Council and State Legislature, this is one of many novel ideas presented due to the uncertainty around a return plan to corporate offices.

The report states that only 10% of Manhattans’ 1 million office workers are physically reporting to the office, and filings to erect new buildings dropped by 22% in 2020, the lowest number since 2010.

AI and Technology Will Transform the Way CRE NPLs Are Sold Forever

“The real estate industry as a whole has been very slow to adopt new technology,” Santarelli states. His sentiments are widely shared amongst experts interviewed, confirming a need for broader capabilities of technology platforms to fully meet the increasing demand to manage CRE deals.

The success of lenders, brokers, and CRE firms in a post-COVID world depends on the extent to which their people can perform in remote work environments. Deloitte reports that most CRE companies are unprepared to meet the demand in this wave of distressed debt.

Jim Berry, Vice Chairman and US real estate leader at Deloitte states, “While the pandemic was an eye-opener, we see it as an accelerant of existing trends. It is telling that 56% of CRE respondents to our 2021 CRE Outlook survey said that the pandemic exposed shortcomings in their organizations’ digital capabilities. Only 40% of respondents said their company has a defined digital transformation roadmap.”

It’s clear that digital adoption is not enough – a digital transformation is necessary for firms, brokers, and sellers to keep up with demand and operate efficiently.

Horowitz shares how technology is helping his firm today by saying, “Technology helps with the two main components of our business; who needs capital and where to find it. There are various ways to determine whose loans are coming due, what projects are on the docket for future development, and what assets are currently in default.

On the capital side, technology is helping us determine capital availability, making sure we connect with the right person at that firm, then create a process using technology to close the deal in the most efficient way.”

Technology platforms driven with AI, like Metechi, help fill in the gap to meet this increasing demand. Increasing analytical capabilities coupled with security and transparency will transform the way the market will operate. To find out how you can buy and sell CRE NPLs at scale, schedule a free demo with Metechi today.

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About Our Contributors

Brock Cannon serves as the head of national loan sales with the Newmark Loan Sale Advisory Group. Based in the firm’s New York headquarters, Brock focuses on secondary debt transactions on a national basis. Brock’s experience with loan sales is extensive and includes the origination of debt and equity financings, restructuring and modifications of distressed loans, loan servicing, loan sales and investment sales. For more information on how to get on the investor list, speak with Brock here.

Chris Skinner is an author, expert and speaker on banking, finance and fintech. He is the author of the The Finanser blog and chairs the Financial Services Club. He defines purpose-driven banking as more than sustainability or ESGs. He likes to pose the key question: if your company doesn’t stand for something then it will fall for everything. What does your company stand for? 

Trisha Connolly is a Senior Managing Director at B6 Real Estate Advisors focusing on equity and debt transactions for the capital advisory team with clients across the country and a focus on the lower Manhattan territory. Ms. Connolly specializes in commercial real estate financing with over 15 years of experience including loan restructure, term financing, syndicated credit facility, construction financing, acquisition financing and advisory and joint venture equity structures.

Adam Horowitz is the Founder and Principal at Lever Capital Partners. Lever focuses on two types of transactions; large one-off deals for institutional sponsors ($50MM+) and programmatic equity investments for established owners looking to build out a niche platform ($10MM+).

By: Aaron McGinley

There have been many changes to the commercial real estate sectors largest food groups since Covid-19, some are temporary and some will be here to stay. Below we share some statistics and our thoughts on which property types you should devour and which ones to avoid as we hit this very unusual July 4th weekend. We’ll list the sectors from 1-4, ranked as the number of turns left on the BBQ until it’s ready to eat.

Multifamily (1 turn left)

Multifamily is poised to recover better than other sectors for a few reasons. The sector had strong momentum going into the Covid crises and as heard on a recent webinar, “you can’t sleep on the internet.”  Per CBRE, vacancy is expected to rise 3.1% from from Q4 2019 (4.1%) to Q4 2020 (7.2%) but fully recover by the end of 2021. Similarly, rents are projected to drop 8.1% in 2020 and fully recover by Q1 2022.  

However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be changes.  People will live where the jobs are and the changing landscape of the “work-from-home” era might affect the long-standing trend of people moving closer to big cities.  We think the so-called 18-hour cities that have job growth, lower taxes, less traffic, and a cost of living that provides the ability to work from home will benefit more than the largest US cities.

Industrial (1 turn left)

Industrial is another palatable menu option.  Although COVID is suppressing the macroeconomy and may experience a brief downturn through 2020, the shift toward social distancing has encouraged e-commerce spending, providing some protection for the industrial sector over the next few quarters. Over the long term, it’s expected that e-commerce will largely maintain its gain in retail share and businesses across the economy will look to carry larger amounts of inventories, boosting industrial demand.

From Lever Capital’s perspective, strong sponsors who can pre-lease or pre-sell industrial will be one of the most attractive asset classes for both debt and equity markets given the strength of e-commerce spending. Everyone will try to enter this space without the knowledge or relationships to get these deals done. We’ll encourage new entrants to partner with experienced groups.

Office (2 turns left)

Office still needs a few more turns on the BBQ before it’s fully cooked.  However, according to CBRE, despite the staggering rise of unemployment and negative GDP figures, 9 of 10 respondents to a Bureau of Labor Statistics survey considered themselves on a temporary layoff.  The office sector benefited from a fast adoption of work-from-home policies. Looking forward, the U.S. office sector most likely will not be able to go through the current crisis unscarred. New office densities and the magnitude and duration of work-from-home regimes is still not ready to eat.

It’ll take a while to determine the level of hurt this sector will take as tenant leases roll over the next year. The opportunity here exists on the distressed side, having a tenant lined up to occupy a vacant building, or repurposing to industrial.

Retail (Overcooked)

The impact of COVID-19 has put additional pressure on the retail industry. According to CBRE, the overall availability rate is expected to rise and reach its peak in Q1 2021 at 12.5%, or 380 basis points (bps) higher than the Q1 2020 level.  Rent is forecasted to reach its trough at Q2 2021, with an 8.5% decrease compared to Q1 2020. This is a challenging time for retailers as many close their stores and more retail space becomes vacant or converted to other property types.

Lots of our friends and clients admit that the country was already “over retailed” and given the shift to e-commerce for some products that previously were dominated by brick and mortar it’ll feel even more-so.  However, with retail sectors being impacted so differently, their recoveries will have different trajectory paths.

Conclusion

The U.S. Real Estate sector will look different this 4th than in years past and some food groups appear to be more appetizing than others.  Multifamily and industrial are poised to recover in short order, while office has some cooking to do and retail has already been burnt from sitting on the grill for too long and may need to be replaced with a fresh dog.

We’re Here to Help

Lever Capital Partners is a boutique capital intermediary with deep relationships in the debt and equity capital markets for commercial real estate. To learn more about our services or if you have questions about capital, reach out to us and we will evaluate your project.

By: Adam Horowitz, Principal

There’s been a lot of change recently and commercial real estate has not been kept out of the fray. Sure, there are some obvious losers (retail and hospitality) and winners (distribution and data centers) that we can see a mile away, but what about the ones harder to find. Here are 3 less obvious sectors:

Office – Not all jobs can be done remotely, and many firms will still favor the social and collaborative benefits which are fostered through in-person working relationships.

Manufacturing – Supply chains could be re-focused domestically, as the outbreak caused global disruptions. The thought is that the industry would be better equipped to handle a similar pandemic in the future if more operations were located in the U.S.

Healthcare – This sector is expected to grow 10% to 16% annually over the next decade as the entire local, county, state, and national healthcare facilities infrastructure and platform are reshaped, integrated and expanded as society mends and strengths as a result of a pandemic like the world has never seen.

Commercial real estate is a slow moving animal, the Manatee of the real estate market some might say. The pandemic has pushed the envelope of how fast CRE markets can shift creating some havoc in certain sectors and opportunities in others.

Short term there will be a quick reaction to run away from office creating plenty of distressed opportunities in this sector, with some assets bouncing back fairly quickly. I don’t expect significant new development without strong pre-leasing from credit tenants nor do I think 50% of the workforce will be working from home in the next year or two. The lack of new supply in the coming years will provide some good deals to get in when the sector is in panic mode.

Industrial in general has been one of the hottest sectors in the commercial real estate business for some time now, but mostly on the distribution and energy fronts. What might be less apparent is what’s happening in the manufacturing space. There will be a small but significant increase in manufacturing as companies concerned about supply chains and their ability to weather future global issues decide to keep more of the work stateside.

Putting aside the challenges with Skilled Nursing at this time, the rest of the Healthcare sector ranging from low acuity products like Independent Living and Assisted Living, to higher acuity such as Memory Care and Hospice will continue to grow. Ancillary property types including Medical Office Buildings and Biotech will follow suit as well. Most of these assets are operation intensive endeavors and therefore have high barriers to entry.

There are sunny times ahead if you can get into the right sector, at the right time. Some sectors will continue to thrive. There will be some new hot property types to consider and also lots of distressed assets coming down the pike if you can gain access to them and have the capital to quickly close.

We are speaking with the markets daily and can tell you that capital is available for both assets that are doing well during this downturn and opportunistic deals in more challenging sectors. The real opportunity will come as deals fall apart for weaker sponsors allowing stronger ones to come in with cash or great capital relationships to pick up the pieces at a discount.

To learn more about these trends and how they might affect your business, or if you have questions regarding a commercial property, reach out to us and we will evaluate your project.

Sources

https://www.forbes.com/sites/angelicakrystledonati/2020/05/27/whats-next-for-real-estate-and-proptech-after-covid-19/#7d37df377694

https://crefloridapartners.com/silver-lining-where-the-commercial-real-estate-industry-sees-opportunity-from-covid-19-outbreak

https://www.lvb.com/rise-virtual-offices-will-change-commercial-real-estate