by: Adam Horowitz

The U.S. multifamily market, once the golden child of commercial real estate, is entering a new phase in 2025. After years of rapid rent growth, the pace has slowed. National averages show rents flattening or even declining in some overbuilt markets. The culprits are clear, a surge of new supply in key metros, rising affordability pressures for renters, and more cautious household formation in the face of economic uncertainty. For value-add investors, who often rely on rent increases to power returns, this shift requires a recalibration. The opportunity is still there, but success now demands sharper strategy, disciplined underwriting, and creative capital solutions.

Capital markets have also turned more challenging. Debt is more expensive, lenders are cautious, and equity partners are scrutinizing deals with greater intensity. Sponsors pursuing value-add plays are finding capital stacks harder to assemble, especially when projected rent growth is modest. This is precisely where Lever Capital Partners can provide an edge. Lever specializes in helping sponsors structure financing solutions tailored to today’s environment, including senior loans, preferred equity, rescue capital, and bridge debt. With deep relationships across private credit funds, non-bank lenders, and institutional investors, Lever delivers not just capital access but also strategic guidance on structuring deals that align with the current risk climate. Whether it is filling a capital gap on a repositioning deal or securing equity for a complex turnaround, Lever helps sponsors navigate today’s more selective and sophisticated capital landscape.

Despite the slowdown in rent growth, opportunities remain, but they are more market and asset specific than ever. Sunbelt markets like Austin, Phoenix, and Atlanta, which absorbed a flood of new deliveries in recent years, are seeing softening rents. In contrast, Midwest cities and certain urban infill locations with limited new supply are holding up better. For value-add investors, the key is to shift focus from relying purely on rental upside to identifying properties where operational improvements, repositioning, or expense management can drive value. Upgrading amenities, improving tenant retention, and enhancing management efficiency are strategies that can deliver returns even when rents are stable. In today’s environment, true value-add means more than riding market momentum, it requires hands-on execution.

Winning capital and closing deals in 2025 will depend on how well sponsors adapt to these new realities. Lenders and investors are demanding conservative underwriting assumptions. Rent growth projections must be realistic, exit cap rates stress tested, and business plans credible. Sponsors who can demonstrate a clear, operational path to improving net operating income (NOI) rather than simply banking on market appreciation will stand out. Moreover, capital providers are looking for meaningful sponsor equity and a track record of execution, not just financial engineering. Deals must be structured with alignment between sponsor and capital partner, and offers must come with certainty of closing. In this environment, having a vetted network of capital partners and an advisor like Lever Capital can make the difference between winning and losing competitive or distressed bids.

The multifamily sector remains a cornerstone of CRE investment, but the playbook has shifted. For value-add investors, the path to returns is now through disciplined underwriting, selective asset and market targeting, and creative, well-structured capital stacks. Lever Capital Partners stands ready to help sponsors meet this moment, providing not only access to capital but also the strategic structuring expertise required in today’s slower growth market. Those who adjust their strategies to the current landscape and partner with the right capital advisors will find that opportunity still exists, even amid the cooling rents. In fact, for those prepared to adapt, this period may prove to be the foundation for the next cycle of outperformance.