2019: The Market Ahead
By Max Bleiler, Lever Capital Partners
Investor appetite is lessening in 2019, according to firms surveyed for the 2019 Annual Investor Intentions Survey by CBRE. Of those surveyed, 98% intend to continue making acquisitions in 2019, but anticipate that they will do so at a slower pace. Furthermore, they are increasingly looking to secondary markets as well as alternative asset classes for yield. Amongst investors, the majority of investments are being made in pursuit of a stable income stream, followed by expectations of capital appreciation. This makes sense as prices across asset classes and markets are at or near all time highs.
Amongst investors, there is continued fear that 2019 may be the year of a global economic downturn. As we are all aware, this fear has been a growing concern over the past few years, but there has yet to be any strong indication that the apocalypse is now. Secondary to this concern is fear over what rising interest rates will do to the economy. At this time, the Fed seems to have indicated that they are taking a break from raising rates, so this fear, at least for 2019, can be put to bed.
Atlanta, Denver and Central Texas markets have emerged as leading metropolitan areas for real estate investment in 2019. Amongst Tier I cities, Boston and Chicago remain in favor while New York, Seattle and D.C. fall behind other Tier II and Tier III locations, including Las Vegas. These trends are continuations of what Lever Capital Partners has seen over the past few years and expects to continue to see moving forward.
Across asset types, industrial reigns top amongst investors. This continues a duel between industrial and multifamily spanning several years now. As tech giants continue to develop distribution plans for our increasingly e-economy, large investors have indicated they believe this sector is ripe with opportunity. Across asset types, value-add strategies remain most popular amongst investors, a trend that has now been increasing for nearly half a decade which Lever Capital Partners expects to continue in the short term. To the surprise of many, retail continues to hold its ground as an investment class, despite much buzz about the so-called “death of retail”.
Looking to the year ahead, the study indicates that 2019 is forecasted to be a slower version of 2018. Many of the concerns of the market have been sustained for several years now and trends in favorable real estate classes, investment strategies, and geographies are continuations from what Lever Capital Partners has seen in the past. In our experience over 2018, we saw increased activity in the senior housing, student housing, and industrial sectors. We anticipate these trends to continue as we move further into 2019.
At Lever Capital Partners we work closely with developers and owners to connect their projects with capital appropriate to their needs. We appreciate and anticipate the challenges the market cycle can bring to real estate transactions. We pride ourselves on our ability to have open conversations with clients and provide quick feedback, as to the market appetite, for their bespoke products. When partnering with developer clients in early stages, we are able to provide our market forecasts and help guide clients toward more financially feasible transactions.